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Terwiesch-Ulrich Cover

Ulrich         Terwiesch

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Tools for Tournaments

Darwinator Software (free web-based tool)
Monte Carlo Simulation of Horizon 1 opportunities
This Excel file supports a Monte Carlo analysis of the profitability index of Horizon 1 opportunities. You can enter the key (uncertain) parameters that influence the profitability index and their statistical distributions. The Excel file then simulates the financial pay-offs. (See Figures 6-4 and 6-6 on pages 111-113 in Chapter 6.)
Simple analysis of Horizon 1 opportunities
This Excel file provides a simple net present value analysis of a Horizon 1 opportunity. You can enter the development cost and development time as well as unit costs and the revenue trajectory. The Excel file than computes the net present value. (See page 109 in Chapter 6.)
Decision tree analysis for Horizon 2 opportunities
The Excel analysis helps in the creation of simple decision trees reflecting different outcomes (scenarios) associated with Horizon 2 opportunities. Your opportunities can have up to two stages and three different outcomes at each stage. You enter pay-offs and probabilities and the Excel file creates the trees and does the financial analysis. (See Figure 6-7 on page 116 and the calculations discussed on p. 120.)
Innovation return curve
This Excel file creates an innovation return curve for you, which can be tedious to construct in Powerpoint. You enter the opportunities, their investments, and their profitability indices and the Excel file creates the corresponding return curve. (See Figure 6-2 on page 107 in Chapter 6 as well as the Introduction chapter.)
Real Win Worth-it Check List
This Excel file has no built-in functionality. It simply provides you with the check-list that we discuss in Chapter 4 (Table 4-3) so that you can easily apply it to your own opportunities.

Learning More

Annotated Bibliography
Additional writing by Terwiesch and Ulrich

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Executive Education & Workshops

Innovation Workshops
Wharton Programs
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Instructor Resources


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"A brilliant treatment of how to actually fill and manage the pipeline."

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Authors & Contact

Christian Terwiesch and Karl Ulrich are professors at The Wharton School, where they have taught innovation and product development to thousands of executives and MBA students. They have led dozens or organizations in becoming more innovative, in a wide range of industries including consumer packaged goods, pharmaceuticals, financial services, and high-technology. Terwiesch and Ulrich ground their teaching and research on a wealth of practical experience as innovators, product designers, and entrepreneurs.

Christian Terwiesch
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Karl T. Ulrich
email  |  personal home page


Copyright 2009 Christian Terwiesch and Karl Ulrich. All Rights Reserved.